Non-Traditional Market Segments

Leagues and companies have continued to grow revenues by targeting non traditional marketing segments including malt drinks for me, American sports to foreign audiences, and sports apparel for women.  Below are two current examples of company’s or leagues targeting valuable under-penetrated markets.

Smirnoff Ice:

I’ve been watching a lot of the NBA playoffs this year and one thing that really stands out are the new Smirnoff Ice commercials. Now I honestly don’t know any guy (well one dude from college) that has ever drank a Smirnoff Ice by choice, yet somehow everyone person in their commercial is a guy.   The unlikely option is that Smirnoff is just really confused about who actually buys there products.  The better guess is that they are targeting the essentially untapped male segment that they really WANT buying their drinks.

Whether the reasons are cultural or just the fact that guys are usually bigger, I think its safe to say that guys drink more then women.  So if a malt drink is currently perceived as a “chick drink” then the distributor is missing out on a majority of potential clients.

This line of thinking is the basis behind increasing the volumes of goods sold.  If you cant increase the “size of the pie” because the number of people of legal drinking ages is fixed, then a company must figure out how to increase its “share of the pie.”  By targeting men, Smirnoff is selling into a larger base of consumers, and the campaign will be a success if they can convince even a small portion of men to change their habits.

NFL Games in London:

The NFL proposing a second game in London is one other way this concept of expanding out from a traditional market segment is happening in the news.  Growing success in the US has led the NFL to look for a bigger fan base in Europe.  Though NFL Europe has now folded as a league, there is likely still interest in some fans to attend games.  The fans might not be loyal, but the NFL game is an event the same way Manchester United would be if they played in the states.  Even if American Football never catches on around the world, there are still 6 billion people who don’t know the game.  Capturing a small portion of that they way baseball or basketball has would be a huge victory for any league.

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Team Websites

I wrote a couple of weeks ago that teams should be using twitter, or similar services, is to increase direct traffic to the team websites.  With more traffic directly to their teams sites, teams can increase add revenue and improve their online presence.  This all is great in theory, but if your hometown team has a poorly organized and aesthetically unappealing website, then all the tiwtter links in the world will not get fans to visit.

Take for example the screen shots below of the Lakers and Celtics websites.  Earlier today I was checking out the Lakers website to find out what time their game 4 playoff game against Huston was at.  My first thought upon opening the site was “wow, this website is bad.”  Not only is the entire site purple, but its covered in irrelevant links and pictures.  AMPM, uses the slogan “Too much good stuff,” and that is the exact problem that the Lakers website has.  I’m sure most of the content on the page is useful, but the website is so unappealing to look at/ use that this page is just a giant wasted resource.

Picture 1

Compare the Laker’s page to the Celtics screenshot below.  Sure there are ways that the Celtics website could be improved, but at least its not horrible to look at.  The white/ green background and simple page design contrast sharply to the purple clutter that covers the Laker’s page.  This has nothing to do with actual content on the page (another post), but only relates to how the page looks and feels.

Picture 2

If you want to increase traffic, then pay someone a couple grand to make it look good.  I suspect that the increase in add revenue from fans clicking through on the site would be enough to offset the fixed cost of the redesign in a pretty short period of time.

If you want an example of a well-designed web 2.0 website then check out mint.com.  Sure the content is completely different because it’s a personal finance website rather than for a pro sports team, but the principles for good website design are the same.  Keep it simple, make it useable, and have relevant content to keep fans coming back.

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Ticket prices and winning

So I’ve decided to start testing my theories with a little investigation of how a teams winning percentage relates to the cost of going to a game.  My idea is that as teams start winning more they can charge more for tickets because they are offering a more compelling product.  Fans are most likely to pay to see a good team than a bad one.  Plus all the bandwagon fans start attending games–aka the Celtics fans once the team pulled off the KG and Ray Allen trades.

As you can see from the chart below, the correlation between 2009 game costs and and winning percentage has increased over the past 8 years.  Another way of thinking about this is to say that a teams winning percentage last year has a stronger relationship with how much it costs to go to a game this year than the teams 2002 or 2003 winning percentage.

Picture 6Definitely not too mind blowing but pretty cool to see some stats behind this.

I’ve also got a theory that this should work in reverse as well.  If fans are paying more money to see a game then the team can afford to have a higher payroll and should therefore win more. Unfortunately, I haven’t found any historical ticket pricing data to back this up.

Notes: This data doesn’t account for one time events like teams building new stadiums or the Montreal Expos becoming the Washington Nationals.  If this were a more detailed analysis I would correct for those sorts of events, but for the purposes of this analysis the trends are still pretty clear.

Sources: The cost in this analysis is the teammarketing.com fan cost index.  It takes into account the price of tickets as well as other extras including food, parking, and souveniours.  The winning percentage data is from espn.com.

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Unemployment and Baseball

At least one more post before I start in on the attendance, ticket price, winning percentage theory.  This one is about unemployment and baseball attendance.

There has been a lot of talk about whether attendance will be down this season because of the economy, and with an unemployment rate hovering around 8% I find I hard to believe there will be no impact on teams.  I’m sure some luxury boxes are locked into multi-year leases, and some teams will continue to sell out (Red Sox), but what worries me are small market teams that can’t even fill the seats in good times.  How is Detroit going to continue to pay its roster with unemployment near 12%?

Lets say it costs $25 for a cheap ticket at a baseball game. That means it will cost a family of 4 $100, just for the game.  Add on $15 dollars for parking and $35 dollars for food and the game price is already up to $150.  That is a lot of discretionary money to be spending on a few hours of entertainment.

Check out the graph below to see the relationship between national unemployment and baseball attendance over the past 6 years.  This analysis would be better with a longer time frame and city by city unemployment, but even so it shows a pretty clear relationship.  picture-5

The blue line is the percent change in major league attendance from the previous season (for example MLB had about the same attendance in 2008 as in 2007).  The red line shows the yearly percentage change in unemployment (for example, the 4.6% unemployment rate in 2007 increased to 5.8% in 2008 which is a 26% increase).

Notice that in every year where unemployment increases, MLB has seen a decrease in YoY attendance. If unemployment stays at the same 8% we saw in the first 3 months of 2009, some quick back of the envelope calculations suggest MLB could be looking at a 4% decrease in ticket sales….yikes!

Of course this is not conclusive because it does not take into account many important factors.  Teams build new stadiums with different capacities, teams move cities, inclement weather rains out games…etc.  But in the end its pretty clear that over the last 6 of 7 years, people are less willing to attend games when unemployment increases.

Look for more on this later…

Sources:  ESPN.com for historical attendance numbers,  BLS website for national unemployment statistics.

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Update: 072109

I saw on the TV in the elevator at work today that baseball attendance is down 5% for the year.  In this post I wrote “If unemployment stays at the same 8% we saw in the first 3 months of 2009, some quick back of the envelope calculations suggest MLB could be looking at a 4% decrease in ticket sales.”  Currently we are at a 9.5% unemployment rate which is directly in line with what I predicted!

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Attendance, Ticket Price, Winning

I’ve got  couple posts coming up exploring the relationship between winning, ticket price and and attendance.  The diagram below shows my theory on how the three forces interact.

3 ForcesWinning should increase attendance because of the bandwagon effect.  Attendance will increase ticket prices because demand increases while supply (number of seats) remains constant.  Higher ticket prices means a more cash coming in to an organization and the ability to afford better players.

Likewise an increase in attendance means more people in the seats and a potentially better home court advantage which should help a team win more.  A higher winning percentage means the team is a better product that people are willing to pay more for.

I plan to pull some data and see if this theory is true.  I’m also trying to figure out if there is any reason higher ticket prices would lead to highe attendance.

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MLB mid-inning entertainment

An idea for MLB teams… Use the time in between innings for something fun!

  • Let kids race around the bases
  • Hide a prize under a base and let a fan try to pick the correct one
  • Have kids spin around with their heads on bats then race

The NFL has halftime concerts, NBA has halftime dancers and singers, but all MLB can offer is a first pitch and the 7th inning stretch?  With 81 home games there has to be something entertaining to do between innings.  This is really the best baseball can do?

milwaukee-brewers-sausage-race

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Outside the Box Ad Revenue

Back in 2004 MLB tried out a pretty innovative concept. On each base the league attached a Spider-man logo to promote the upcoming Spider-Man 2 movie release.  At the time this was really not well received by fans interested in the integrity of the game, but it may not have been such a bad idea.

Today teams are reeling as attendance drops (see an upcoming post).  Small market teams are getting crushed, and even the Yankees are having a hard time selling the most expensive tickets in their new stadium.

Will the Tigers have to trade Miguel Cabrera later this season because Detroit’s economy is suffering?  I suspect that the Tigers would have no problem with some sort of off the wall promotional deal like the spider-man bases if it meant they could afford keep a potential MVP player.

Pro sports teams must continue to pursue advertising deals wherever they can be found.  SportCenter has the “Coors light cold hard facts,” TNT is constantly pushing the “T-Mobile Fav 5,” every stadium has some ridiculous name like “Energy Solutions Arena,” so who really draws the line on whats appropriate and what is not.  If 15 years ago people heard that the Rose Bowl (one of the holiest names in all sports) was going to be called “The Rose Bowl present by Citi,” I’m sure there would have been an outrage.

All I am saying is that pro sports teams may need to continue to pursue outside the box advertising deals.  It’s better to make the wrong call on an advertising deal and be forced to apologize than to have acted conservatively and put the financial stability of your franchise at risk.  5 years later I still remember the Spider-Man 2 promotion because any press is better than no press.

I am not advocating that franchises completely sell out, but outside the box deals should be considered as long as they do not impact the safety of fans, players or officials.  I get as annoyed as anyone when marketing is out of place or interferes with my viewing experience, but sometimes you need to push the limits.  Make it fun, make it unique, and make it talked about.   Just check out what European soccer teams have been able to do with the ad space  on Jerseys.

If the New York Times can put an advertisement on it’s front page then anything is up for grabs.

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